Both interviews one by news agency ANI and the other by The Times of India have elicited detailed responses from the prime minister on several issues such as the state of the economy, banking sector woes, employment, reservations, lynchings, NRC, politics, foreign policy, etc. Modi appears confident of retaining power with an even 'bigger' mandate in Time will tell whether his confidence is misplaced.
It was certainly intense, with more divergent views presented this year than at previous conferences. Plus, the range of topics was rather dramatic. This year I was able to listen to all but one of the presentations, and I want to share with you my notes and takeaway thoughts.
In addition to my own notes as a source for this letter, my associate Pat Watson sent me his notes, as well as links to a summary by attendees Chris Bailey and my good friend Steve Blumenthal. I put a great deal of effort into planning the speaking lineup for my conference.
It is routinely called the best macroeconomic investing conference in the country each year, and I have to humbly agree. It takes work to make it that way. The topic of what the Fed would do and what the effects would be was a running theme throughout the conference. That concern is mirrored in the following quote from Stan Druckenmiller.
And whatever you do, focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity. Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. In a departure from tradition, cosponsor Altegris Investments has agreed to allow me to share one video of a conference speaker per week for the next few months.
The videos are in production, and I hope to be able to bring you the first one next week. Speaker Notes First up was David Rosenberg. Rosie has been my leadoff hitter for a number of years and is a crowd favorite. Never in all these years has he failed to bring a new presentation.
It was certainly one of the most bullish. David was consigned to the permabear camp for many years, but he actually turned bullish at my conference about four years ago, which was pretty good timing. The economy is tepid, in large part due to the shrinkage of the working-age population.
There are not enough people to buy houses and consumer goods. The problem is it was the non-procreative kind. Subscribe now and receive the full version of John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline delivered to your inbox each week.
Subscribe Now Already have an account? Click here to log-in. We never share your email with third parties. The last time the Fed hiked was Juneand it took 18 more months before the market started to crack. He offered this slide: He predicts the Fed rate hike will not bring an end to the economic expansion or bull market.
It is when the Fed tightens too much that they invert the yield curve and recessions start. This expansion will end, too, but may not be over untilRosie says. On the profits recession: Central banks are gobbling up the Treasury supply.
Therefore stocks are not as expensive as you think. Real bond yields are negative; bonds are overvalued. Bonds being overvalued was a theme sounded by multiple speakers at the conference. Inflation is running close to 2.
There is more inflation beneath the surface than meets the eye. Real yields are negative.
|United States Economy - GDP, Inflation, CPI and Interest Rate||Decoupling of wages from productivity: Several OECD countries have been grappling not only with slow productivity growth but have additionally experienced a slowdown in real average wage growth relative to productivity growth, which has been reflected in a falling share of wages in GDP.|
Institutions have to buy T-bonds. Bonds today are strictly for speculators. Coupons no longer provide any downside protection. Rosenberg offers his strong conviction: He had one of the better lines of the conference, which I just have to note.
He said this about 20 times in different ways.Current Year; Prior Years ; Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by , in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at percent. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining.
ALL ECONOMIC NEWS . What is the "current macroeconomic situation" in the U.S.
(e.g. is the U.S. economy currently concerned about unemployment, inflation, recession, etc.)? The Macroeconomic Forecast is prepared on a quarterly basis. It contains a forecast for the current and following years and for certain indicators an outlook for another 2 years.
The next full Economic Outlook will be released here on 21 November , 11am Central European Time (CET). Preliminary versions of economic research.
Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand Versus Supply in the Wake of the Financial Crisis. In most cases, managers can safely assume that demand is affected both by macroeconomic variables and by industry-specific developments. In looking at plain-paper copier paper, the team used.